Waiting for No-Brainers

We are not geniuses. Even though we sometimes want to think so. But we are not. We tend to overestimate our ability and under estimate the probabilities. A question was asked to me, about things like inflation and interest rates and taxes, and how it would affect a business that is in a sugary beverages. As a value investor with 10 years of experience in investing my own money, my answer is: I don’t know.

I am no genius. And I know I am not a genius. I try to jump on opportunities that seems like its dropping on my lap. I go for easy, no brainer investments. Because I’m no better than anybody. I can not predict the economy and macroeconomic factors. I wouldn’t even know how much a company would earn this year. But what I do know is how to spot easy opportunities.

One example of that is my investment in FB. Its a very easy opportunity to spot and to invest in. The information is posted on news website everywhere and its on the disclosure. Everything is open for the world to see. All you have to do is buy it. The owner, Ramon Ang says his business is worth 79 per share. But its 60 on the stock market. Is it cheap or is it cheap? It is cheap! And its mispriced. All you have to do, is buy everything you could. That’s what I did, until the suspension, I was buying. When the suspension was lifted, it immediately went up to 80. Is it cheap still? I DON’T KNOW! So what do we do? We hold. We wait.

Most people think that the hard part of investing is looking for opportunities. Some would argue that the hardest part is selling. I also believe that selling is hard. That is why I try to avoid selling. See? I’m not good at these things. I try to avoid things that are hard.

“All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.”

The same is true in investing. If I could get in easy on investments, I also make sure that that company is a forever hold, so I could avoid selling. Seems pretty easy right? Pick easy investments, hold forever.

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